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customer discovery

Customer Discovery: Job One for A Successful Startup

Customer Discovery: Job-One for a Successful Startup

 

customer discovery

There are two paths to a startup. The first is to get an idea, develop a product, produce a product and then try to sell it.  The second is to get an idea, test the market appetite, create a prototype, test the market reaction, revise, and test until you are ready to produce.

I probably don’t need to tell you that the second path is typically more successful. The better you understand your customer, their needs, and their appetite for your product, the more likely you will be to build a product people will buy. This is the path of customer discovery.

If the second path is typically more successful, why do founders choose the first path so often?  There are several reasons. One reason is that founders assume that because they saw a need for the solution, others will buy it.  It’s the “if you build it, they will come” model.  Unfortunately, just because you want it, or think it is a good business idea, doesn’t mean that other people will spend money on it.

 

Product-Market Fit

Before you get too far along your startup journey, I encourage you to think about what we call product-market fit. Product-market fit is when there is a need and an appetite for a solution to a problem. It also means that your solution fills the need and is priced so that people will buy it. Solving a problem isn’t enough. You have to make sure there is a product-market fit.  We do that through customer discovery.

The customer discovery process starts by understanding who has the problem you are trying to solve, how important it is, and how much they are willing to spend to solve it. If you get an answer that indicates the problem is troublesome enough that they are willing to invest to solve it, you can test your solution model with the potential customer.

You begin this customer discovery process by defining the target market you believe will want your product, developing a series of questions to understand the customer’s interest, analyzing the data, and then revising and retesting if necessary. If you believe there is more than one target market for your product, then you may need to run this customer discovery process more than one time.

 

4 Part Customer Discovery Process:

  • Define a Target Market
  • Customer Validation: Understanding the:
  • Problem
  • Urgency
  • Appetite (Budget)
  • Testing your solution
  • Analyzing the Data
  • Revision & Retesting

 

Define the Target Market

If you have an idea for a product, the next step is to think about who might use it.  Don’t make the mistake of thinking “anyone” or “everyone” can use it.  While that may be true, it is more helpful to think about who is most likely to have the problem you are solving and be willing to invest resources into solving it.  Who do you think will be easiest to sell this to?  Then, stop and think if there are other groups that might also be able to use it.  Make a list of the groups of buyers. Many founders would be surprised how often companies have changed their target market when they realize that a different buyer is willing to pay more or buy it more often.

Depending on what you sell, your target customers could be moms of teenagers, accountants, or quality control specialists in labs. For example, if you’re a founder selling testing equipment, you may think that the equipment would most often be used by labs in water treatment facilities. You might discover that other labs test for similar things that could use the same equipment. Those other types of labs might be another target market.

If you are selling business-to-business (B2B), you might want to consider all the people who might be involved in buying or using the product you are selling. You may want to interview more than one type of buyer during your customer discovery.

 

Customer Validation

Customer Validation is the process of studying the potential buyer.  There are many ways to do this. You can set up a study and have people participate, you can send out a survey, or you can do interviews.  There are probably other ways to do this as well.  With a new product, especially for a new founder, doing interviews is a great starting place because people will tell you things you didn’t think to ask.

Before you interview or survey potential customers, develop your customer discovery questions. Here is a link to some sample questions on customer discovery.  It is important to think through the questions and test them on people before you start your interviews. You want to ensure you are asking what you mean to ask and that the questions are easy to understand and answer. You also want to ensure you are not leading them to answer in a specific way. You want honest answers.

Start by understanding the problem. (I use ‘problem’, but it could be something they want to achieve or avoid). You are assuming that people have a certain problem. First, you need to confirm that they have that problem.  Next, you will want to understand how that impacts them.  How much of a problem is it? Many problems don’t seem worth fixing. Other problems create other problems when you fix them.  You need to understand all of this. The problem has to be bothersome enough that they are willing to suffer through the solution.

Next, understand how urgent a solution is. Is this priority 1 or 56?  Do other things need to get solved before this, or in order to solve this?  What is the timeline around those things? If I want a new carpet but don’t want to get it until I fix the leak in the roof and the water damage on the ceiling, the new carpet may have to wait a few weeks or months. Timing is everything. 

Once you understand the timing, ask how much they will pay. Remember that the price of your product may only be part of the cost for them. If I buy makeup, I may also have to buy brushes. If I buy a new car, I must also get new insurance and register the car.  So you need to understand how much they will pay for your solution plus how much else they are willing to invest.

Finally, test your solution with them. You may want to bring a prototype for them to test. Do they like your solution?  What do they like or not like about your solution? Does seeing your solution change their urgency or how much they are willing to pay? 

Be as consistent as you can in asking the questions. It will be hard to analyze the data if you don’t follow the same process every time.  Give yourself a place to track answers not specifically asked in the questionnaire.

 

Analyze the Data

Compiling and understanding the data of your customer discovery is important.  You can get a feel for what people say, but formally analyzing it will give you better information.  If you do interviews, you can still put the answers into a program like Survey Monkey so they can analyze the data for you. Sometimes once you get the answers, you will begin to see trends. You might notice if people answered one question a certain way, they were more likely to answer a second question a specific way. You can see many trends in the data if you look for them. 

 

Revision and Retesting

The whole point of this customer discovery process is to learn. If you are lucky, you will get through this survey, and everyone will say they love the idea and the product and they are willing to pay what you want them to pay. More likely, as you do these interviews, surveys, or tests, you will learn things that will make you rethink your product or solution. You can do a handful of customer discovery surveys and make urgent changes before you go on. Or you may get through the whole survey process and analyze the data before deciding what changes to make.  However you do it, the vital thing to remember is that you are doing this to learn how to produce a product people will pay for. Remember, until people buy your product for a profitable price, you have a hobby, not a business. Your job is to develop a successful business. That means you need a product that solves a problem that people want to solve badly enough to pay for.

Product development tends to be an iterative process. In other words, you get an idea, you research the fit, make revisions, test again and keep revising and testing until you get it right.  

 

How to Find Your Test Sample

Decide how many people you want to interview before you start. It is essential to have a big enough sample size to analyze. Talking to ten people, for example, isn’t enough to make a good business decision. I recommend talking to at least 100 people if you can swing it. You might want to do ten as phase one, then revise before you do the rest.

If possible, start with people you know well. That will give you a comfortable environment to test your survey before you try it on strangers. 

Next, go to what we call 2nd level connections. Those are friends of friends or connections of connections on LinkedIn.  Ask for introductions from people you know. If you have been introduced, people are much more likely to agree to the interview. Finally, you must reach out to strangers if you run out of people you know.  You could use LinkedIn for this or make cold calls. Let them know you are developing a product and would like to interview them to get their feedback. Let them know how long the interview will take. If you want to, you can offer a Starbucks gift card or something like that as a thank you.

 

Proceed, Pivot or Punt

You must decide at several points along the way if you will “proceed, pivot, or punt.”   You may make minor changes as you research, but keep moving forward with your business as planned. You may decide to pivot, meaning you will make significant changes in your product or target market. Finally, you may discover the company isn’t going to work. Maybe people don’t need to fix the problem, or there are better solutions out there, or perhaps people won’t pay enough to make the business profitable. Whatever the reason, sometimes deciding to give up is the right thing.

At various points in your startup journey, the decision to ‘proceed, pivot, or punt’ becomes crucial. Seeking advice and insights from experienced mentors, such as those affiliated with StartupNV, can offer a fresh perspective and guide you in making informed choices for the future of your business.

Even once you have a product on the market, you will likely update, upgrade or change it over time.  Some products, like Coca-Cola, always stay the same, while others, like iPhones, change yearly. 

 

Fastest Path to the Finish-line

For many founders, preparing the product for sale seems like the most direct path to success. It may be direct, but there is a huge risk of getting to the finish line without a buyer. Potential customers can be fickle and hard to understand, so customer discovery may seem like taking the long way around. There may be more twists and turns in the process, but the end result should be a product ready for a market that is willing to pay.  

By Liz Heiman, CEO at Regarding Sales and StartupNV Mentor

About the Author

Liz has been helping companies with enterprise (B2B complex sales) since 1998. She started her career at Miller Heiman training companies like HP, Coca-Cola, NCR and Johnson Controls. Now she works with startups and companies in transition to build sales operating systems to support sales and growth goals. Liz will work with any company who has a B2B complex sales, but is focused on manufacturing, med tech and other tech.

 

 

Customer Discovery Questions List by StartUpNV

 

  1. Have you experienced this situation?
  2. Is it a problem for you?
  3. Where and when do you experience this problem?
  4. How are you currently dealing with the situation?
  5.  How often do you experience the problem?
  6. How interested are you in an easier solution, on a scale of 1 to 10?
  7. How many others that you know experience the problem?
  8. How long should you have to wait for the solution to work?https://startupnv.org/customer-discovery-job-one-for-a-successful-startup/
  9. How much time are you willing to invest in learning the solution?
  10. Are you willing to pay for a better solution?
  11. How much are you willing to pay?
  12. If it is a one time solution, how often are you willing to pay for it?

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NV Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar and Jeff Saling of StartUpNV present investment check to Adaract founders Marcus D'Ambrosio and Clay Payson.

Advice for Entrepreneurs Raising Venture Capital by Jeff Saling

It’s simple to raise money from venture investors… once you understand how venture investors think.  Like any group, investors are not all the same – but the advice is directionally accurate (and free).

Foundational reality – startups are a high risk asset class:

Google it… the public stock market has delivered more than 7% average annual returns for 100+ years, including during recessions. Real estate returns are similar. At a 7% annual return, an investment’s value doubles every 10 years. At 10% annual return, an investment doubles every 7 years. Investors count on this “7-10” rule (aka “the rule of 72”) to build wealth. While there are short term risks, it’s proven reliable over the long term. 

How do startup investments compare? As a high-risk investment class, startup venture funds must offer a significant upside to these traditional lower risk investments to attract capital. 

How to win at startup investing invest in a portfolio

Decades of history inform us that 75% of startups (15 of 20) fail. Google it. There are thousands of examples. No one intends or desires this failure rate. Many smart, motivated people are constantly working on improving this result, but so far “the best” funds have similar results. So, that 75% failure rate is the baseline assumption for startup venture investing.  

Of the 25% that don’t fail, roughly 5% (1 in 20) return more capital than was invested. That’s why venture funds and angel groups “bet” on portfolios of 20+ startups – to have a good chance for at least one big winner. The winners have to be big to make up for the losses and breakeven returns.  

Portfolio investment math – simplified

Venture funds  search through hundreds or thousands of startups and screen carefully to find companies that can return “at least 2 times the fund. For a small $10M fund, that means each company must have a strong chance to be acquired, creating a $20M profit to the fund – considering dilution, fund operating costs, etc. The “2x the fund” goal accounts for the historic 75% failed companies value going to zero and the 20% that make a small or breakeven return as net neutral (1x). 

Following this “2x method” to its logical conclusion, a $10M fund returns $30M, 50% more than traditional (rule of 72) type investing – with nearly all of the profit coming from one or two portfolio companies. Of course this is only true if the fund chooses the businesses and founders wisely AND invests at a “proper” company valuation.  

An example

A “small” $10M seed fund makes 30 investments ($333k avg). Each investment buys 15% of a startup company, imputing a $2.2M post money valuation to the startup. From the fund’s “2x” perspective, each startup company investment must have a strong potential to generate a $20M (2x the fund) net profit to the fund.  When funds consider prospective dilution at 50% from the early rounds to an exit, fund operating costs, etc, over a likely 7+ year investment horizon – the exit size and gross profit required is much larger to meet the “2x the fund” goal. 

Continuing the example, the startup in this scenario (valued at $2.2M) must be acquired for $270M ($20M/.075) to make the required profit of $20M for the fund’s 7.5% ownership, diluted in half from the original 15% due to later investments.  Fund management is considering whether the founding team can create a $270M company over 7(ish) years – AND get it to an exit.  As a means of comparison, Crunchbase and Seraph Investor document the average and median startup exit at $154M and $50M respectively.  With no dilution, the $270M requirement is $133M ($20M /.15) – still hard compared to the median.

Competing perspectives

Founders may be frustrated by this example with a “just a $2.2M valuation” – preferring $10M or more. If the fund agrees to $10M – and assuming the investment stays the same, fund ownership percentage drops to 3.3% (before dilution). The founder is now happy that they’re keeping more and getting “a proper valuation”. But the investor has a different perspective – focused on meeting the 2x goal. The fund managers are well aware of the odds of failure – even when all parties are talented, motivated, and diligent. So, how does the target for exit change?

With a $10M valuation, the company must sell for $1.25B ($20M /.016) to meet “2x the Fund” investment objectives – with 50% dilution. That’s a tall order… likely requiring at least $250M in rapidly growing annual revenue in a large market – and/or $80M in EBITDA.  The likelihood of meeting fund objectives in this scenario is slim, even for a great startup, in a large market, with strong founders.  

This high valuation scenario is where the protections of strong preferred terms (like full ratchet dilution, participating preferred with a multiple, etc.) enters an investor’s mind.  These terms mitigate investor risk at a low or middling exit, but place the founding team at great risk of losing the company with a down round or having a zero payout due to preferred multiples with a lower exit compared to the $1.25B requirement in this scenario. Investors will want one or the other (an investable valuation or strong terms) – food for thought on what constitutes a “realistic” valuation. Is this company truly a potential unicorn?  Can the founding team get it there and execute an exit?  

Advice

“Everyone” thinks their startup is a certain unicorn, but keep those median and average exit numbers in mind (along with the failure rate). A founder seeking investment should be aware of this general investor analysis and the valuation multiples and exits in their specific market. Founders should be able to clearly show how their company will be “the one” (out of 20) in the investor’s portfolio that will return at least 2x the fund.  The valuation at the start makes a huge difference in whether the investment is worth the risk for an investor.  As the investment rounds and fund sizes grow, the math gets tougher. 

My advice for founders, remembering this is free advice and likely worth at least 10x what you paid for it,  is that it’s better to have a small piece of a successfully exited company than a big piece of a failed startup.  

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Beware the Carpetbaggers & Scalawags by Jeff Saling

Carpetbaggers come to town selling something sketchy (of dubious value) to “take” from locals without any intent of sticking around. Scalawags are their local enablers who lend credence to the carpetbaggers either out of naivete or because they’re in on it. As our startup ecosystem grows, we attract both – like moths to a flame. Beware.

I’ll (Jeff Saling) drop an occasional blog post in our newsletter to call out the behaviors I see – sometimes by name if it’s particularly egregious, and I hope our community will fight them off, like an infection. In chapter 1, I’ll pick on those who trade on the dreams and naivete of new founders. People or organizations that scam founders for cash and /or equity – – such as:

Charging founders a four figure amount to pitch to their investor group
Charging founders four figure amount and/or 2% equity to create a pitch deck, then access their “network”
Charging founders a four figure amount to “consult” on their business plan or financials – then pitch to their investor group
Getting professional help to create a great looking pitch deck is fine, but NEVER pay to pitch.

People or organizations that scam founders for equity with super sharky deals. This will happen even more as investment funds tighten.

Offer founders a $20k investment for 5 or 6% of their company… and access to their “network” of funders and mentors once they’ve completed their course.
Offer founders an investment – usually mid five or low six figures, then require they use the investor’s “professional services” to create pitch decks, business plans, rent office space, etc. – promising access to funders and mentors at the completion of a course.
You get the idea. These types of arrangements rarely work. Ask for success stats in advance – talk with other founders that have been in the program – and find them yourself. Don’t accept groomed references. You shouldn’t expect 100% great references – but be skeptical. It’s difficult because it seems SO REAL – SO POSSIBLE when you’re a founder and convinced you’ve got the next big thing.

Beware of Carpetbaggers and Scalawags.

Beware the Carpetbaggers & Scalawags by Jeff Saling Read More »